3. Matrix Modelling

Learning outcomes
  • I can represent practical systems using matrices.
  • I can interpret transition matrices.
  • I can model simple networks.
  • I can analyse matrix-based systems.
  • I can solve applied modelling problems.

Introduction

Matrices are much more than tools for organising numbers or solving equations. They can be used to construct mathematical models of real-world systems, helping us describe relationships, predict future behaviour, and make informed decisions.

Consider the following situations:

  • A school wants to predict how students move between different courses.

  • A transport company needs to analyse connections between cities.

  • A business wants to estimate how customers switch between competing products.

  • An ecologist wants to predict changes in an animal population.

  • A social network wants to identify connections between users.

  • A manufacturer needs to calculate the resources required for different products.

Each situation involves quantities that are related to one another. Matrices allow these relationships to be represented systematically.

A matrix model uses one or more matrices to describe a system mathematically. By multiplying, adding, or analysing these matrices, we can investigate how the system behaves.

In this lesson, we will explore practical matrix representations, transition matrices, network models, repeated transformations, and the interpretation of results. We will also investigate how matrix modelling can be used to solve authentic problems and evaluate the limitations of mathematical models.

 

What Is Matrix Modelling?

A mathematical model is a simplified representation of a real-world situation.

A matrix model uses rows and columns to organise information about relationships between quantities.

For example, a factory produces three products using two resources.

Resource

Product A

Product B

Product C

Labour hours

2

3

4

Material units

5

2

3

We can represent this information using:

\[ R=\begin{bmatrix} 2&3&4\\ 5&2&3 \end{bmatrix} \]

Each column represents a product.

Each row represents a resource.

Suppose the factory plans to produce:

  • 10 units of Product A

  • 20 units of Product B

  • 15 units of Product C

The production vector is:

\[ P=\begin{bmatrix} 10\\20\\15 \end{bmatrix} \]

The total resources required are:

\[ T=RP \]
\[ T= \begin{bmatrix} 2&3&4\\ 5&2&3 \end{bmatrix} \begin{bmatrix} 10\\20\\15 \end{bmatrix} \]

Calculate each row:

Labour:

2(10) + 3(20) + 4(15) = 140

Materials:

5(10) + 2(20) + 3(15) = 135

Therefore:

\[ \boxed{T=\begin{bmatrix}140\\135\end{bmatrix}} \]

The factory requires 140 labour hours and 135 material units.

This illustrates how a matrix can transform a production plan into a resource requirement.

The Matrix Modelling Process

A successful matrix model generally follows a sequence of steps.

The calculations are only one part of the modelling process. A useful model must also make sense in the context of the original problem.

 

Transition Matrices

A transition matrix describes how a system changes from one state to another.

Transition matrices are particularly useful when individuals or quantities move between categories over time.

Examples include:

  • Customers switching between brands.

  • Students moving between courses.

  • Animals moving between habitats.

  • Workers changing employment categories.

  • Weather changing between sunny and rainy conditions.

  • Machines changing between operating states.

Understanding states

A state is a category or condition that a system can occupy.

For example, a simple weather model may have two states:

  • Sunny

  • Rainy

Suppose the probabilities of tomorrow's weather are:

Today's weather

Sunny tomorrow

Rainy tomorrow

Sunny

0.8

0.2

Rainy

0.3

0.7

If today is sunny, there is an 80% probability that tomorrow will also be sunny.

If today is rainy, there is a 30% probability that tomorrow will be sunny.

Constructing a transition matrix

In this lesson, we use column state vectors and column-stochastic transition matrices.

This means:

  • Each column represents the current state.

  • Each row represents the next state.

  • Every column sums to 1.

The weather transition matrix is:

\[ \boxed{ T=\begin{bmatrix} 0.8&0.3\\ 0.2&0.7 \end{bmatrix} } \]

The first column represents transitions from sunny weather.

The second column represents transitions from rainy weather.

The columns sum to 1:

0.8 + 0.2 = 1

0.3 + 0.7 = 1

Some textbooks use row-stochastic matrices instead. Both conventions are valid, but the matrix and state-vector orientation must be consistent.

 

Transition Diagrams

A transition diagram shows states as circles and probabilities as arrows.

A transition diagram is useful because it provides a visual representation of the same information contained in the matrix.

 

State Vectors

A state vector describes the current distribution of a system across its states.

For example, suppose the probability of today's weather is:

70% sunny

30% rainy

The state vector is:

\[ S_0=\begin{bmatrix}0.7\\0.3\end{bmatrix} \]

To calculate tomorrow's weather probabilities:

\[ \boxed{S_1=TS_0} \]

More generally:

\[ \boxed{S_{n+1}=TS_n} \]

where:

  • Sₙ is the state vector at time n.

  • T is the transition matrix.

  • Sₙ₊₁ is the state vector at the next time step.

Worked Example 1: Predicting Tomorrow's Weather

Given:

\[ T=\begin{bmatrix}0.8&0.3\\0.2&0.7\end{bmatrix} \]

and:

\[ S_0=\begin{bmatrix}0.7\\0.3\end{bmatrix} \]

Calculate:

\[ S_1=TS_0 \]
\[ S_1= \begin{bmatrix}0.8&0.3\\0.2&0.7\end{bmatrix} \begin{bmatrix}0.7\\0.3\end{bmatrix} \]

Sunny:

0.8(0.7) + 0.3(0.3) = 0.65

Rainy:

0.2(0.7) + 0.7(0.3) = 0.35

Therefore:

\[ \boxed{S_1=\begin{bmatrix}0.65\\0.35\end{bmatrix}} \]

Tomorrow's predicted probabilities are:

  • Sunny: 65%

  • Rainy: 35%

Check:

0.65 + 0.35 = 1

The probabilities are valid.

 

Repeated Transitions

To predict the state after two time periods:

\[ S_2=TS_1 \]

Since S₁ = TS₀:

\[ S_2=T(TS_0) \]

Therefore:

\[ \boxed{S_2=T^2S_0} \]

After n time periods:

\[ \boxed{S_n=T^nS_0} \]

This is one of the most important formulas in transition matrix modelling.

Worked Example 2: Weather After Two Days

Using the previous model:

\[ S_1=\begin{bmatrix}0.65\\0.35\end{bmatrix} \]

Calculate:

\[ S_2=TS_1 \]

Sunny:

0.8(0.65) + 0.3(0.35)

= 0.52 + 0.105

= 0.625

Rainy:

0.2(0.65) + 0.7(0.35)

= 0.13 + 0.245

= 0.375

Therefore:

\[ \boxed{S_2=\begin{bmatrix}0.625\\0.375\end{bmatrix}} \]

After two days:

  • Sunny probability: 62.5%

  • Rainy probability: 37.5%

The model predicts a gradual movement towards a stable distribution.

 

Exploring a Transition Model

Use the interactive model below to change the transition probabilities and observe how the state distribution evolves.

Notice that different starting distributions may approach the same long-term distribution, depending on the transition probabilities.

 

Steady-State Distributions

A steady-state distribution is a state vector that remains unchanged after applying the transition matrix.

If S is a steady-state vector:

\[ \boxed{TS=S} \]

This is also an eigenvector equation with eigenvalue 1.

For a probability transition matrix, the entries of S must be nonnegative and sum to 1.

Worked Example 3: Finding a Steady-State Distribution

Consider:

\[ T=\begin{bmatrix}0.8&0.3\\0.2&0.7\end{bmatrix} \]

Let:

\[ S=\begin{bmatrix}x\\y\end{bmatrix} \]

We require:

TS = S

Therefore:

0.8x + 0.3y = x

0.2x + 0.7y = y

Rearrange the first equation:

0.3y = 0.2x

Therefore:

3y = 2x

We also know:

x + y = 1

From 3y = 2x:

x = 1.5y

Substitute:

1.5y + y = 1

2.5y = 1

y = 0.4

Then:

x = 0.6

Therefore:

\[ \boxed{S=\begin{bmatrix}0.6\\0.4\end{bmatrix}} \]

The steady-state distribution is:

  • Sunny: 60%

  • Rainy: 40%

Interpretation

Under this model, the long-term weather distribution approaches 60% sunny and 40% rainy, regardless of the initial probability distribution.

This convergence occurs because the transition matrix has suitable properties, including positive transition probabilities.

Not every transition matrix has a unique steady state or converges to one.

 

Markov Chains

A Markov chain is a mathematical model describing transitions between states in which the next state depends only on the current state.

This is called the Markov property.

For example, in a simplified weather model, tomorrow's weather depends on today's weather but not directly on the weather several days ago.

A Markov chain consists of:

  • A set of states.

  • Transition probabilities.

  • An initial state or probability distribution.

  • A rule for updating the distribution.

Transition matrices are a convenient way to represent finite Markov chains.

Limitations of Markov models

Real systems may depend on more information than the current state.

For example, weather also depends on:

  • Season

  • Temperature

  • Atmospheric pressure

  • Geographic location

  • Large-scale weather systems

A two-state model is therefore a simplified representation, not a complete weather forecasting system.

 

Real-World Application 1: Customer Brand Switching

Suppose a market contains two competing brands, A and B.

Each month:

  • 85% of Brand A customers remain with A.

  • 15% switch from A to B.

  • 25% of Brand B customers switch to A.

  • 75% remain with B.

The transition matrix is:

\[ T=\begin{bmatrix} 0.85&0.25\\ 0.15&0.75 \end{bmatrix} \]

Suppose initially:

  • Brand A has 600 customers.

  • Brand B has 400 customers.

The initial state vector is:

\[ S_0=\begin{bmatrix}600\\400\end{bmatrix} \]

Worked Example 4: Predicting Market Shares

Calculate:

\[ S_1=TS_0 \]
\[ S_1= \begin{bmatrix} 0.85&0.25\\ 0.15&0.75 \end{bmatrix} \begin{bmatrix} 600\\400 \end{bmatrix} \]

Brand A:

0.85(600) + 0.25(400)

= 510 + 100

= 610

Brand B:

0.15(600) + 0.75(400)

= 90 + 300

= 390

Therefore:

\[ \boxed{S_1=\begin{bmatrix}610\\390\end{bmatrix}} \]

After one month, the expected customer counts are:

  • Brand A: 610

  • Brand B: 390

The total remains 1,000.

Long-term interpretation

At steady state:

0.15x = 0.25y

Therefore:

3x = 5y

Since x + y = 1:

x = 0.625

y = 0.375

The long-term market shares are:

  • Brand A: 62.5%

  • Brand B: 37.5%

This assumes customers remain in the two-brand market and the transition probabilities remain constant.

 

Network Modelling

A network is a collection of objects connected by relationships.

Networks appear in many real-world situations:

  • Cities connected by roads.

  • Airports connected by flights.

  • People connected through social relationships.

  • Computers connected through communication links.

  • Power stations connected by transmission lines.

  • Webpages connected by hyperlinks.

In mathematics, networks are often represented using graphs.

A graph consists of:

  • Vertices (nodes): Objects in the network.

  • Edges: Connections between objects.

Matrices provide an efficient way to represent these connections.

 

Adjacency Matrices

An adjacency matrix records which vertices in a network are connected.

For a network with n vertices, its adjacency matrix is an n × n matrix.

For a simple undirected graph:

  • Entry 1 indicates a connection.

  • Entry 0 indicates no connection.

  • The matrix is symmetric.

  • Diagonal entries are zero when there are no self-loops.

Example Network

Suppose four locations are connected as follows:

  • A connects to B and C.

  • B connects to A, C, and D.

  • C connects to A and B.

  • D connects only to B.

    Using the order A, B, C, D, the adjacency matrix is:

    \[ \boxed{ M=\begin{bmatrix} 0&1&1&0\\ 1&0&1&1\\ 1&1&0&0\\ 0&1&0&0 \end{bmatrix} } \]

    Interpreting the matrix

    Row A:

    0, 1, 1, 0

    This means A connects to B and C.

    Row B:

    1, 0, 1, 1

    This means B connects to A, C, and D.

    Because the graph is undirected:

    Mᵀ = M

    The adjacency matrix is symmetric.

     

    Degree of a Vertex

    The degree of a vertex is the number of edges connected to it.

    For a simple undirected graph, we can calculate the degree by adding the entries in its corresponding adjacency matrix row.

    Using the previous network:

    Degree of A = 2

    Degree of B = 3

    Degree of C = 2

    Degree of D = 1

    Vertex B has the greatest degree.

    Therefore, B is the most directly connected vertex in this network.

    This type of analysis is useful in transport planning, social networks, and communication systems.

     

    Matrix Powers and Network Paths

    An important property of adjacency matrices is that their powers contain information about walks through a network.

    If M is the adjacency matrix of a graph, then:

    The entry (i, j) of Mⁿ counts the number of walks of length n from vertex i to vertex j.

    A walk may revisit vertices or edges, so it is not necessarily a simple path.

    Worked Example 5: Counting Two-Step Walks

    Consider a network with three vertices:

    A — B — C

    Its adjacency matrix is:

    \[ M=\begin{bmatrix} 0&1&0\\ 1&0&1\\ 0&1&0 \end{bmatrix} \]

    Calculate M²:

    \[ M^2= \begin{bmatrix} 0&1&0\\ 1&0&1\\ 0&1&0 \end{bmatrix} \begin{bmatrix} 0&1&0\\ 1&0&1\\ 0&1&0 \end{bmatrix} \]

    The result is:

    \[ \boxed{ M^2=\begin{bmatrix} 1&0&1\\ 0&2&0\\ 1&0&1 \end{bmatrix} } \]

    Interpret the entry in row A, column C.

    It equals 1.

    Therefore, there is exactly one two-step walk from A to C:

    A → B → C

    The entry in row B, column B equals 2.

    There are two two-step walks from B back to B:

    B → A → B

    B → C → B

    This demonstrates how matrix multiplication can reveal indirect connections.

     

    Directed Networks

    Some networks contain connections that operate in only one direction.

    Examples include:

    • One-way roads.

    • Flights operating in one direction.

    • Social media following relationships.

    • Webpage hyperlinks.

    • Supply chains.

    These are called directed graphs.

    For a directed graph, the adjacency matrix does not need to be symmetric.

    Suppose:

    A → B

    B → C

    C → A

    The adjacency matrix is:

    \[ M=\begin{bmatrix} 0&1&0\\ 0&0&1\\ 1&0&0 \end{bmatrix} \]

    Here, rows represent starting vertices and columns represent destination vertices.

    For example:

    M₁₂ = 1

    means there is a directed edge from A to B.

    But:

    M₂₁ = 0

    means there is no directed edge from B to A.

    The direction of connections matters.

     

    Weighted Networks

    Not all connections are equally important.

    Some networks assign numerical values to edges.

    These values are called weights.

    Weights may represent:

    • Distance

    • Travel time

    • Cost

    • Capacity

    • Strength of a relationship

    • Amount of information transferred

    Example: Transport Network

    Suppose three cities are connected by roads.

    Route

    Distance

    A to B

    40 km

    A to C

    70 km

    B to C

    30 km

    A weighted adjacency matrix is:

    \[ W=\begin{bmatrix} 0&40&70\\ 40&0&30\\ 70&30&0 \end{bmatrix} \]

    The entry in row A, column B is 40, indicating a distance of 40 km.

    For this particular network, zero on the diagonal represents the distance from a city to itself.

    When zero is also used to represent no connection, care is needed to distinguish missing routes from zero-weight routes.

    Why weighted networks are useful

    They allow us to investigate:

    • Shortest routes.

    • Lowest-cost connections.

    • Transport efficiency.

    • Communication capacity.

    • Resource distribution.

    However, ordinary matrix multiplication does not directly calculate shortest routes. Shortest-path problems generally require specialised algorithms or alternative matrix operations.

     

    Real-World Application 2: School Course Enrolment

    A school offers three elective courses:

    • Art

    • Music

    • Technology

    At the beginning of a semester, enrolment is:

    Course

    Students

    Art

    80

    Music

    60

    Technology

    100

    The initial enrolment vector is:

    \[ S_0=\begin{bmatrix}80\\60\\100\end{bmatrix} \]

    Suppose the school estimates the following transition percentages between semesters.

    Current course

    Next: Art

    Next: Music

    Next: Technology

    Art

    70%

    20%

    10%

    Music

    10%

    80%

    10%

    Technology

    20%

    10%

    70%

    Using our column-vector convention, the transition matrix is:

    \[ T=\begin{bmatrix} 0.7&0.1&0.2\\ 0.2&0.8&0.1\\ 0.1&0.1&0.7 \end{bmatrix} \]

    Worked Example 6: Predicting Enrolment

    Calculate:

    \[ S_1=TS_0 \]
    \[ S_1= \begin{bmatrix} 0.7&0.1&0.2\\ 0.2&0.8&0.1\\ 0.1&0.1&0.7 \end{bmatrix} \begin{bmatrix} 80\\60\\100 \end{bmatrix} \]

    Art:

    0.7(80) + 0.1(60) + 0.2(100)

    = 56 + 6 + 20

    = 82

    Music:

    0.2(80) + 0.8(60) + 0.1(100)

    = 16 + 48 + 10

    = 74

    Technology:

    0.1(80) + 0.1(60) + 0.7(100)

    = 8 + 6 + 70

    = 84

    Therefore:

    \[ \boxed{S_1=\begin{bmatrix}82\\74\\84\end{bmatrix}} \]

    Interpretation

    The model predicts:

    • Art: 82 students

    • Music: 74 students

    • Technology: 84 students

    The total remains:

    82 + 74 + 84 = 240

    This agrees with the original total of 240 students.

    Evaluating the model

    The model assumes:

    • Students select exactly one of these electives.

    • No students enter or leave the group.

    • The transition probabilities remain constant.

    • Student decisions can be represented using the estimated percentages.

    In reality, course popularity, teacher availability, timetabling, and student preferences may change.

    Therefore, the predictions should be treated as estimates.

     

    Real-World Application 3: Input–Output Economic Models

    Matrices can describe how different industries depend on one another.

    For example, agriculture may require manufacturing products, while manufacturing may require agricultural resources.

    These relationships can be represented using an input–output model.

    Suppose an economy has two industries:

    • Agriculture

    • Manufacturing

    For each unit of agricultural output, production requires:

    • 0.2 units of agricultural output.

    • 0.1 units of manufacturing output.

    For each unit of manufacturing output, production requires:

    • 0.3 units of agricultural output.

    • 0.2 units of manufacturing output.

    The input coefficient matrix is:

    \[ A=\begin{bmatrix} 0.2&0.3\\ 0.1&0.2 \end{bmatrix} \]

    The columns represent the industries producing output, while the rows represent the inputs required.

    Suppose final consumer demand is:

    \[ D=\begin{bmatrix}100\\80\end{bmatrix} \]

    Let X represent the total production required.

    The model is:

    \[ X=AX+D \]

    Rearrange:

    \[ X-AX=D \]
    \[ (I-A)X=D \]

    Therefore:

    \[ \boxed{X=(I-A)^{-1}D} \]

    provided I − A is invertible.

    Worked Example 7: Calculating Required Production

    First:

    \[ I-A= \begin{bmatrix} 0.8&-0.3\\ -0.1&0.8 \end{bmatrix} \]

    Calculate the determinant:

    det(I − A) = 0.8(0.8) − (−0.3)(−0.1)

    = 0.64 − 0.03

    = 0.61

    Therefore:

    \[ (I-A)^{-1}= \frac1{0.61} \begin{bmatrix} 0.8&0.3\\ 0.1&0.8 \end{bmatrix} \]

    Multiply:

    \[ X=\frac1{0.61} \begin{bmatrix} 0.8&0.3\\ 0.1&0.8 \end{bmatrix} \begin{bmatrix}100\\80\end{bmatrix} \]
    \[ X=\frac1{0.61} \begin{bmatrix} 104\\74 \end{bmatrix} \]

    Therefore:

    \[ \boxed{ X\approx\begin{bmatrix} 170.49\\ 121.31 \end{bmatrix} } \]

    The economy must produce approximately:

    • 170.49 units of agricultural output.

    • 121.31 units of manufacturing output.

    These totals exceed final consumer demand because each industry also supplies inputs needed for production.

    This simplified model assumes fixed input requirements and sufficient production capacity.

     

    Analysing Matrix-Based Systems

    Once a matrix model has been constructed, we can investigate more than its immediate numerical results.

    We can examine its stability, sensitivity, connectivity, and long-term behaviour.

    Stability

    A system is stable when its behaviour remains controlled or approaches a predictable state.

    For a repeated linear system:

    \[ X_{n+1}=AX_n \]

    the magnitudes of eigenvalues help determine long-term behaviour.

    • Eigenvalues with absolute value less than 1 correspond to directions that decay.

    • Eigenvalues with absolute value greater than 1 correspond to directions that grow.

    • Eigenvalues with absolute value equal to 1 require closer analysis.

    If all eigenvalues have absolute value less than 1, then repeated application of A drives every state vector towards zero.

    Transition matrices behave differently because they have an eigenvalue of 1, and may approach a nonzero steady-state distribution.

    Sensitivity

    A model is sensitive when small changes in inputs or assumptions produce large changes in its predictions.

    For example, changing a customer retention rate from 85% to 80% may affect long-term market shares substantially.

    Sensitivity analysis helps answer questions such as:

    • What happens if costs increase?

    • What happens if transition probabilities change?

    • What happens if demand rises?

    • Which assumptions have the greatest influence?

    Connectivity

    In network models, we can investigate how well the system is connected.

    Useful measurements include:

    • Degree of a vertex.

    • Number of walks between vertices.

    • Whether one vertex can be reached from another.

    • Importance of particular connections.

    • Whether removing an edge disconnects part of the network.

    Model validity

    A matrix calculation may be mathematically correct but still produce a poor real-world prediction.

    A model should be evaluated by asking:

    • Are the assumptions realistic?

    • Are the input values reliable?

    • Are the units consistent?

    • Are important factors missing?

    • Does the model agree with observed data?

    • How far into the future can the predictions reasonably be trusted?

     

    Worked Example 8: Evaluating a Population Model

    A population contains two groups of animals.

    The population changes according to:

    \[ X_{n+1}= \begin{bmatrix} 0.8&0\\ 0&1.2 \end{bmatrix}X_n \]

    Initially:

    \[ X_0=\begin{bmatrix}100\\50\end{bmatrix} \]

    Calculate the population after two periods.

    Step 1: Calculate the first period.

    \[ X_1= \begin{bmatrix} 0.8&0\\ 0&1.2 \end{bmatrix} \begin{bmatrix}100\\50\end{bmatrix} \]
    \[ X_1=\begin{bmatrix}80\\60\end{bmatrix} \]

    Step 2: Calculate the second period.

    \[ X_2= \begin{bmatrix} 0.8&0\\ 0&1.2 \end{bmatrix} \begin{bmatrix}80\\60\end{bmatrix} \]
    \[ \boxed{X_2=\begin{bmatrix}64\\72\end{bmatrix}} \]

    Interpretation

    The first group decreases by 20% each period.

    The second group increases by 20% each period.

    The eigenvalues are:

    λ₁ = 0.8

    λ₂ = 1.2

    These values explain the different long-term behaviours.

    Limitations

    The model assumes fixed growth rates and no interaction between the groups.

    Real populations may be affected by food availability, disease, migration, competition, and environmental changes.

     

    Choosing an Appropriate Matrix Model

    Different problems require different types of matrices.

    Situation

    Suitable model

    Calculating resources for production

    Resource coefficient matrix

    Predicting movement between categories

    Transition matrix

    Representing connections between locations

    Adjacency matrix

    Representing distances or costs

    Weighted network matrix

    Analysing relationships between industries

    Input–output matrix

    Predicting repeated growth or decay

    Repeated matrix transformation

    Finding long-term probability distributions

    Steady-state transition model

    The most important modelling decision is identifying what the rows, columns, and matrix entries represent.

    A well-constructed matrix model should have a clear interpretation for every entry.

     

    Common Mistakes

    Mistake 1: Reversing rows and columns in a transition matrix

    Always establish whether rows or columns represent the current state.

    Mistake 2: Forgetting that transition probabilities must sum to 1

    Under the column-stochastic convention, each column must sum to 1.

    Mistake 3: Multiplying matrices in the wrong order

    For column state vectors, use Sₙ₊₁ = TSₙ.

    Mistake 4: Confusing a state vector with a transition matrix

    The state vector describes the current distribution. The transition matrix describes how that distribution changes.

    Mistake 5: Assuming all transition matrices converge to one steady state

    Some systems cycle or have multiple steady states.

    Mistake 6: Confusing paths and walks

    Matrix powers count walks, which may revisit vertices or edges.

    Mistake 7: Assuming adjacency matrices must be symmetric

    Only undirected networks have symmetric adjacency matrices under the standard convention.

    Mistake 8: Confusing weighted networks with ordinary adjacency matrices

    Weighted matrices contain values such as distances or costs, not simply zeros and ones.

    Mistake 9: Ignoring units

    A resource matrix may contain hours, kilograms, or monetary amounts. These must be interpreted consistently.

    Mistake 10: Assuming model predictions are guaranteed outcomes

    Models describe expected or estimated behaviour based on assumptions.

    Mistake 11: Applying matrix operations without checking dimensions

    Matrix multiplication requires compatible dimensions.

    Mistake 12: Ignoring model limitations

    Real systems may contain factors not represented by the matrix.

     

    Key Terms

    • Matrix Model: Mathematical representation of a system using matrices.

    • State: Category or condition occupied by a system.

    • State Vector: Vector describing the current distribution across states.

    • Transition Matrix: Matrix describing movement between states.

    • Transition Probability: Probability of moving from one state to another.

    • Column-Stochastic Matrix: Nonnegative matrix whose columns each sum to 1.

    • Row-Stochastic Matrix: Nonnegative matrix whose rows each sum to 1.

    • Markov Chain: Model in which the next state depends only on the current state.

    • Markov Property: Assumption that future transitions depend only on the present state.

    • Steady-State Distribution: Probability distribution unchanged by the transition matrix.

    • Matrix Power: Repeated multiplication of a matrix by itself.

    • Network: Collection of objects connected by relationships.

    • Graph: Mathematical structure consisting of vertices and edges.

    • Vertex: Node representing an object in a network.

    • Edge: Connection between two vertices.

    • Adjacency Matrix: Matrix recording connections between vertices.

    • Directed Graph: Graph whose edges have directions.

    • Undirected Graph: Graph whose edges do not have directions.

    • Weighted Graph: Graph whose edges have numerical values.

    • Degree: Number of edges incident to a vertex in an undirected graph.

    • Walk: Sequence of connected vertices that may repeat vertices or edges.

    • Path: Walk with no repeated vertices, under the standard simple-path definition.

    • Connectivity: Description of how vertices are linked.

    • Input–Output Model: Economic model describing relationships between industries.

    • Eigenvalue: Scalar describing how an eigenvector is scaled.

    • Stability: Behaviour of a system over time.

    • Sensitivity Analysis: Investigation of how changes in inputs affect outputs.

    • Model Assumption: Simplification or condition used to construct a model.

    • Model Validation: Process of comparing a model with real-world observations.

     

    Key Takeaways

    • Matrices can represent practical systems involving several related quantities.

    • Matrix multiplication can calculate resource requirements and other outputs.

    • Transition matrices describe movement between states.

    • State vectors represent the current distribution of a system.

    • Repeated transitions are calculated using Sₙ = TⁿS₀.

    • A steady-state distribution satisfies TS = S.

    • Markov chains describe transitions that depend only on the current state.

    • Networks can be represented using adjacency matrices.

    • Matrix powers can count walks of specified lengths in a network.

    • Directed networks may have non-symmetric adjacency matrices.

    • Weighted networks represent quantities such as distance, cost, or capacity.

    • Matrix models can describe population changes, market shares, and economic relationships.

    • Eigenvalues help explain growth, decay, and stability.

    • Mathematical models depend on assumptions and may not perfectly represent reality.

    • Results must always be interpreted in the context of the original problem.

     

    Check Your Understanding

    Questions

    Question 1: Resource Modelling

    A factory produces two products.

    Product A requires 3 labour hours and 4 material units.

    Product B requires 5 labour hours and 2 material units.

    Write the resource matrix.

    Question 2: Matrix Multiplication

    Using Question 1, calculate the resources required to produce 10 units of A and 20 units of B.

    Question 3: Transition Matrix

    A system has two states, A and B.

    • 80% of A remains in A.

    • 20% of A moves to B.

    • 30% of B moves to A.

    • 70% of B remains in B.

    Write the column-stochastic transition matrix.

    Question 4: One-Step Transition

    Using Question 3, calculate the next state if:

    \[ S_0=\begin{bmatrix}100\\200\end{bmatrix} \]

    Question 5: Two-Step Transition

    Using the same transition matrix and initial state, calculate S₂.

    Question 6: Steady State

    Find the steady-state probability distribution for:

    \[ T=\begin{bmatrix} 0.7&0.2\\ 0.3&0.8 \end{bmatrix} \]

    Question 7: Adjacency Matrix

    A network contains three vertices:

    A connects to B.

    B connects to A and C.

    C connects to B.

    Write its adjacency matrix.

    Question 8: Vertex Degree

    Using Question 7, determine the degree of each vertex.

    Question 9: Matrix Powers

    Calculate M² for the adjacency matrix in Question 7.

    Interpret the entry in row A, column C.

    Question 10: Directed Network

    A directed network has connections:

    A → B

    B → C

    C → A

    Write its adjacency matrix.

    Question 11: Weighted Network

    Three cities have the following direct road distances:

    A–B: 50 km

    A–C: 80 km

    B–C: 40 km

    Write a symmetric weighted adjacency matrix.

    Question 12: Population Model

    A population is modelled by:

    \[ X_{n+1}= \begin{bmatrix} 0.9&0\\ 0&1.1 \end{bmatrix}X_n \]

    If:

    \[ X_0=\begin{bmatrix}200\\100\end{bmatrix} \]

    calculate X₂.

    Question 13: Economic Modelling

    An economy has:

    \[ A=\begin{bmatrix} 0.2&0\\ 0&0.25 \end{bmatrix} \]

    and final demand:

    \[ D=\begin{bmatrix}80\\60\end{bmatrix} \]

    Solve X = AX + D.

    Question 14: Evaluating Models

    Explain three limitations of using a fixed transition matrix to predict customer behaviour over several years.

    Question 15: Integrated Challenge

    A school has 500 students choosing between two clubs, Science and Mathematics.

    Initially:

    • 300 students choose Science.

    • 200 students choose Mathematics.

    Each semester:

    • 80% of Science students remain in Science.

    • 20% move to Mathematics.

    • 30% of Mathematics students move to Science.

    • 70% remain in Mathematics.

    a) Construct the transition matrix.

    b) Write the initial state vector.

    c) Calculate the expected club membership after one semester.

    d) Calculate the expected membership after two semesters.

    e) Find the steady-state distribution.

    f) Explain two assumptions of the model.

     

    Fully Worked Answers

    Answer 1: Resource Modelling

    Rows represent labour and materials.

    Columns represent Products A and B.

    \[ \boxed{ R=\begin{bmatrix} 3&5\\ 4&2 \end{bmatrix} } \]

    Answer 2: Matrix Multiplication

    Production vector:

    \[ P=\begin{bmatrix}10\\20\end{bmatrix} \]

    Calculate:

    \[ RP= \begin{bmatrix} 3&5\\ 4&2 \end{bmatrix} \begin{bmatrix}10\\20\end{bmatrix} \]

    Labour:

    3(10) + 5(20) = 130

    Materials:

    4(10) + 2(20) = 80

    \[ \boxed{RP=\begin{bmatrix}130\\80\end{bmatrix}} \]

    Answer: 130 labour hours and 80 material units.

    Answer 3: Transition Matrix

    Using columns for current states:

    \[ \boxed{ T=\begin{bmatrix} 0.8&0.3\\ 0.2&0.7 \end{bmatrix} } \]

    Each column sums to 1.

    Answer 4: One-Step Transition

    \[ S_1=TS_0 \]
    \[ S_1= \begin{bmatrix} 0.8&0.3\\ 0.2&0.7 \end{bmatrix} \begin{bmatrix}100\\200\end{bmatrix} \]

    First component:

    0.8(100) + 0.3(200) = 140

    Second component:

    0.2(100) + 0.7(200) = 160

    \[ \boxed{S_1=\begin{bmatrix}140\\160\end{bmatrix}} \]

    Answer 5: Two-Step Transition

    Use the result from Question 4:

    \[ S_1=\begin{bmatrix}140\\160\end{bmatrix} \]

    Then:

    \[ S_2=TS_1 \]

    First component:

    0.8(140) + 0.3(160) = 160

    Second component:

    0.2(140) + 0.7(160) = 140

    \[ \boxed{S_2=\begin{bmatrix}160\\140\end{bmatrix}} \]

    Answer 6: Steady State

    Given:

    \[ T=\begin{bmatrix}0.7&0.2\\0.3&0.8\end{bmatrix} \]

    Let:

    \[ S=\begin{bmatrix}x\\y\end{bmatrix} \]

    Solve:

    TS = S

    From the first row:

    0.7x + 0.2y = x

    Therefore:

    0.2y = 0.3x

    2y = 3x

    y = 1.5x

    Also:

    x + y = 1

    Therefore:

    x + 1.5x = 1

    2.5x = 1

    x = 0.4

    y = 0.6

    \[ \boxed{S=\begin{bmatrix}0.4\\0.6\end{bmatrix}} \]

    Answer: 40% in A and 60% in B.

    Answer 7: Adjacency Matrix

    Connections:

    A–B

    B–C

    The adjacency matrix is:

    \[ \boxed{ M=\begin{bmatrix} 0&1&0\\ 1&0&1\\ 0&1&0 \end{bmatrix} } \]

    Answer 8: Vertex Degree

    Add the entries in each row.

    A: 0 + 1 + 0 = 1

    B: 1 + 0 + 1 = 2

    C: 0 + 1 + 0 = 1

    Answer: Degree(A) = 1, Degree(B) = 2, Degree(C) = 1.

    Answer 9: Matrix Powers

    \[ M=\begin{bmatrix} 0&1&0\\ 1&0&1\\ 0&1&0 \end{bmatrix} \]

    Multiplying M by itself gives:

    \[ \boxed{ M^2=\begin{bmatrix} 1&0&1\\ 0&2&0\\ 1&0&1 \end{bmatrix} } \]

    The entry in row A, column C equals 1.

    Therefore, there is one two-step walk from A to C:

    A → B → C

    Answer 10: Directed Network

    Using rows as starting vertices and columns as destinations:

    \[ \boxed{ M=\begin{bmatrix} 0&1&0\\ 0&0&1\\ 1&0&0 \end{bmatrix} } \]

    This matrix is not symmetric because the connections are directed.

    Answer 11: Weighted Network

    Using the order A, B, C:

    \[ \boxed{ W=\begin{bmatrix} 0&50&80\\ 50&0&40\\ 80&40&0 \end{bmatrix} } \]

    The matrix is symmetric because the distances are the same in both directions.

    Answer 12: Population Model

    Given:

    \[ A=\begin{bmatrix}0.9&0\\0&1.1\end{bmatrix} \]

    and:

    \[ X_0=\begin{bmatrix}200\\100\end{bmatrix} \]

    After one period:

    \[ X_1=\begin{bmatrix}180\\110\end{bmatrix} \]

    After two periods:

    \[ X_2=AX_1 \]
    \[ X_2= \begin{bmatrix} 0.9(180)\\ 1.1(110) \end{bmatrix} \]
    \[ \boxed{X_2=\begin{bmatrix}162\\121\end{bmatrix}} \]

    The first group decreases while the second increases.

    Answer 13: Economic Modelling

    Given:

    \[ A=\begin{bmatrix}0.2&0\\0&0.25\end{bmatrix} \]

    and:

    \[ D=\begin{bmatrix}80\\60\end{bmatrix} \]

    The model is:

    X = AX + D

    Therefore:

    (I − A)X = D

    \[ I-A=\begin{bmatrix}0.8&0\\0&0.75\end{bmatrix} \]

    This gives:

    0.8x = 80

    0.75y = 60

    Therefore:

    x = 100

    y = 80

    \[ \boxed{X=\begin{bmatrix}100\\80\end{bmatrix}} \]

    Answer 14: Evaluating Models

    Three limitations include:

    1. Changing preferences: Customer choices may change because of advertising, prices, or new products.

    2. Fixed probabilities: The model assumes transition probabilities remain constant, which may be unrealistic over several years.

    3. Missing factors: Economic conditions, competitors, and population changes may affect customer behaviour.

    Therefore, predictions become less reliable if the model assumptions no longer reflect reality.

    Answer 15: Integrated Challenge

    Part a: Transition matrix

    Using Science first and Mathematics second:

    \[ \boxed{ T=\begin{bmatrix} 0.8&0.3\\ 0.2&0.7 \end{bmatrix} } \]

    Part b: Initial state vector

    \[ \boxed{ S_0=\begin{bmatrix}300\\200\end{bmatrix} } \]

    Part c: After one semester

    \[ S_1=TS_0 \]

    Science:

    0.8(300) + 0.3(200)

    = 240 + 60

    = 300

    Mathematics:

    0.2(300) + 0.7(200)

    = 60 + 140

    = 200

    Therefore:

    \[ \boxed{S_1=\begin{bmatrix}300\\200\end{bmatrix}} \]

    The membership distribution remains unchanged.

    Part d: After two semesters

    Since S₁ = S₀:

    \[ S_2=TS_1 \]
    \[ \boxed{S_2=\begin{bmatrix}300\\200\end{bmatrix}} \]

    The distribution remains unchanged again.

    Part e: Steady-state distribution

    Let:

    \[ S=\begin{bmatrix}x\\y\end{bmatrix} \]

    Solve:

    TS = S

    From the first row:

    0.8x + 0.3y = x

    Therefore:

    0.3y = 0.2x

    3y = 2x

    x = 1.5y

    Since:

    x + y = 1

    1.5y + y = 1

    2.5y = 1

    y = 0.4

    x = 0.6

    Therefore:

    \[ \boxed{S=\begin{bmatrix}0.6\\0.4\end{bmatrix}} \]

    The steady-state distribution is:

    • Science: 60%

    • Mathematics: 40%

    For 500 students:

    Science = 0.6(500) = 300

    Mathematics = 0.4(500) = 200

    The initial distribution was already at steady state.

    Part f: Assumptions

    Two assumptions are:

    1. The total number of students remains constant at 500.

    2. The transition percentages remain unchanged each semester.

    Other assumptions include that students belong to exactly one of the two clubs and that movement depends only on their current club.

     

    Final Reflection

    Matrix modelling allows complex real-world systems to be represented using organised mathematical structures.

    Transition matrices describe movement between categories, while adjacency matrices represent connections within networks. Weighted matrices extend these ideas by including distances, costs, capacities, and other numerical relationships.

    Matrix multiplication allows us to predict future states, calculate resource requirements, and analyse indirect network connections.

    Repeated matrix operations reveal how systems change over time, while steady-state analysis and eigenvalues help explain long-term behaviour.

    However, mathematical modelling requires more than correct calculations. A useful model must be based on reasonable assumptions, interpreted carefully, and evaluated against real-world evidence.

    The central idea is that matrices transform complicated relationships into mathematical models that can be used to describe systems, analyse their behaviour, make predictions, and support practical decisions.